Overreaction and recency bias. Two things that plague NFL bettors.
This gruesome twosome isn’t just confined to our NFL picks and predictions, but it’s a duo we dance with in our non-gambling lives as well.
Take my son for example. He loves superheroes. I love superheroes. So, any new superhero movie hitting the theater (and there’s been a lot of them), we see in the cinema. Regardless of the quality of said superhero flick, that latest movie now becomes his favorite of all time.
“Blue Beetle”, “The Flash”, “Guardians of the Galaxy 3”, “Across the Spider-Verse”, “Shazam! Fury of the Gods”, and whatever cinematic superhero stories came before that have all had their day in the sun with my kid. It’s the reason why we have not one but two Dwyane Johnson “Black Adam” action figures.
His 8-year-old brain is dazzled by the bright lights and big sounds, instantly installing that movie alongside such superhero staples as “The Dark Knight”, “Avengers” and “Spider-Man 2”. Well, until the next round of comic book flicks comes out this winter.
NFL odds are the exact same thing.
Our 8-year-old betting brains – starved of football sustenance since the Super Bowl – overreact to what we just witnessed and start making wild assumptions about the quality of teams, based solely on a single Sunday result.
That’s why I love betting NFL Week 2 odds so much. There are windows of wagering value opened by the markets’ overreaction and recency bias, some as wide as an IMAX movie screen. You just have to be careful not to get suckered in by a flashy sliver of the 2023 NFL season that was Week 1.
Oh, look the new “Aquaman 2” trailer just dropped. Ooooo. That looks good. You better buy advanced tickets now.
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 2-1 ATS
