When NFL MVP odds opened for last season (2023-24), Jordan Love was a distant +4000 as he prepared to take over under center for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. He was largely an afterthought and many believed he wouldn t cut it as the Packers new starting QB.
Fast-forward a year and Love opened as short as +1200 , which was tied for fifth-best at opening, after he beat the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round of last year s playoffs, and nearly upset the 49ers as well. BetMGM opened Love at +1600 and have had to shorten his odds to +1400 after seeing money come in on the second-year starter over the last four months.
NFL MVP Betting Splits
At the time of writing this, here is BetMGM s NFL MVP betting handle splits:
Patrick Mahomes (15.7%)
Jordan Love (10.5%)
Aaron Rodgers (9.9%)
To be clear, betting handle splits just means the percentage of the total money that has been wagered so far. At the moment, Love only trails two-time NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes in terms of the amount of money that has been wagered on him to win MVP.
When you look to the tickets (number of bets made) at , Love is third with 7.7% of the total bets being placed on him. Mahomes is first again here, but only by a razor thin margin as he has 13.3% of the tickets versus 13.2% that have been placed on CJ Stroud.
I always put more weight into the betting handle over the tickets. You don t need to have a lot of confidence to throw down $1 on someone to win an award, yet it counts just the same as someone who put $100 down both bets are counted as one ticket. So, bet percentages can be a little misleading. The money tells the real story, and the fact that Love has 10.5% of the handle versus just 7.7% of the tickets means the bets being placed on him are notably bigger than the bets placed on Stroud.
One quick aside: BetMGM has reported their biggest liability (the player they would lose the most money on, should they win the award) is rookie Caleb Williams. The Bears QB is currently +8000 to win the award.
Reasons to Bet Love to Win NFL MVP
There is a lot to like about Jordan Love entering the 2024-25 NFL season. After getting off to a bit of a slow start, only averaging 210.5 passing yards per game with 10 TDs, seven INTs, and a 79.4 passer rating through his first six starts last year, Love really turned it on over the final 11 weeks.
The first-year starter averaged 263.3 passing yards per game while throwing 22 touchdowns and just four interceptions in his final 11 games of the regular season, while posting a 104.4 passer rating. After starting the season 2-4, Love went 7-4 from there on, which included a big win over the Lions on Thanksgiving, and finished the season with a 9-8 record, good for a wild card spot.
Jordan Love just posted this on his IG story
Super Bowl
— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL)
Then when the playoffs came around, Love put together what I believe was his best game as a pro against the #2-seeded Cowboys. He threw for 272 yards, three touchdowns, and did not turn the ball over while facing free-rushers in his face on many of his best throws. Love had a bit of a tougher game against the 49ers in the Divisional Round, but he only lost by a field goal.
Looking to this season, the Packers after only playing in nine games last season, same goes for Luke Musgrave, who mixed six weeks as well, and their extremely young receiving corps, which includes Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks among others, has another year under their belt. They also replaced Aaron Jones, who had his own struggles with injuries last year, with Josh Jacobs and added rookie Marshawn Lloyd, who brings a lot of burst to the running back position. Perhaps most importantly, Green Bay also invested their first-round pick in Jordan Morgan, who projects to start at RG as a rookie.
With a healthy set of weapons around him and a brilliant, creative offensive-minded head coach in Matt LaFleur calling the plays, Love has the potential to put up some big numbers this season and compete for the NFC North title.
Reasons to Avoid Betting Love
There are three reasons I see to avoid betting Love to win NFL MVP:
The price is quite short at +1400 and I think Green Bay loses to the Eagles in Week 1. If that does happen, I think you can get a better price on Love after the loss.
While Green Bay did upgrade at right guard, I m still not in love with the rest of their offensive line, specifically the left side.
Since the league expanded to a 17-game schedule, no player has won the award without at least 13 wins. If you go back further, it has taken at least 12 wins in each of the last seven years. In what I suspect will be the most competitive NFC North we ve seen in a while, thanks to the Bears loading up on offense and Lions projected to continue in the direction they have been going the last two years, I have a hard time seeing Love and the Packers winning at least 12 games.
I do think Love will be competitive in the NFL MVP race, and may find myself putting some money down on him at a later date, but I am laying off for now.
Looking at the BetMGM odds, the two bets I like the most right now are Jalen Hurts at +1600 and Anthony Richardson at +3500.
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