The betting community’s confidence in the New England Patriots has significantly waned since their bye week, with their status shifting from a 5.5-point favorite to as low as -3 in the latest NFL odds. This adjustment precedes their upcoming clash with Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants at the Meadowlands on Sunday.
Despite the questions at quarterback for the visitors, all DeVito’s performance did last week was sway the perception of him, and that’s creating some value for the Pats.
I break down the Week 12 odds and offer my free NFL picks for Patriots vs. Giants on November 26.
Patriots vs Giants odds
Patriots vs Giants predictions
Now that the spread has hit -3, it’s time to buy the dip on the New England Patriots.
It sure sounds like Mac Jones will start after he told reporters on Tuesday that he hopes to play. And even if Bailey Zappe gets the nod instead, New England is still the right side at a flat 3.
This is a bad spot for Tommy DeVito as he faces Bill Belichick, who has an extensive track record of making inexperienced quarterbacks look bad. With the Patriots coming off a bye week, the extra time to prep for the rookie isn’t in the New York Giants’ favor either.
Heading into Week 11, DeVito was the subject of ridicule, but he turned the narrative around by defeating the Commanders and delivering an impressive performance with three touchdowns and 246 yards. In the two preceding starts with DeVito, the Giants had been outscored 79 to 23, and as a team, they entered last week as the lowest-scoring offense in football, managing single-digit points in half of their games.
Despite the victory, it’s also worth noting that Washington outgained the Giants by 111 yards and held nearly 10 more minutes of possession, indicating that New York’s success wasn’t necessarily a dominant showcase.
Meanwhile, New England could get some bodies back this week as tackle Trent Brown works his way back from an ankle injury, while wideout DeVante Parker and corner J.C. Jackson haven’t been ruled out either. Even without these pieces, getting any team at -3 against a QB like DeVito isn’t a bad move, especially with the Pats having the rest advantage coming off the bye.
The Giants are contending with five mid-week injuries to key starters, with notable names like star running back Saquon Barkley, tackle Evan Neal, defensive leader Dexter Lawrence, linebacker Bobby Okereke, and receiver Darius Slayton all marked as DNPs on Wednesday. CB Adoree’ Jackson is also still dealing with a concussion.
Even if Zappe is announced as the starter for New England, I can’t see this line dropping to -2.5. Although it might not seem fun laying three points with the Pats on the road, this will likely be the best number available.
My best bet: Patriots -3 (-112 at BetRivers)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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